Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
