Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.