Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The average count of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new administrative figures. Nevertheless, security analysts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to indicate better national stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when the President took the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had in these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than 4x higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is especially true considering the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these measures, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.