Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
